By Roman Yanushevsky
Jerusalem (INPS Japan) – The Middle East is often described as one of the world’s most volatile regions. Long-running conflicts, deep ideological rivalries, weak regional security frameworks, and the involvement of global powers combine to make it especially sensitive to nuclear risks.｜RUSSIAN｜JAPANESE｜
By Roman Yanushevsky
While only one country in the region is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, several others have sought – or are suspected of seeking – nuclear capabilities. Together, these dynamics enhanced by regional strife make the Middle East a potential nuclear flashpoint.
Who Possesses Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East?
Israel
Israel is widely regarded as the only Middle Eastern state with nuclear weapons, although it has never officially confirmed or denied this. This policy of “nuclear opacity” has been in place for decades.
Common expert estimates range from 80 to 200 nuclear warheads. Israel is believed to have a nuclear triad, including aircraft, land-based missiles, and submarine-launched capabilities.
Israel views nuclear weapons as an ultimate deterrent, designed to prevent existential threats in a hostile regional environment. No other Middle Eastern country is currently assessed by mainstream international bodies to possess operational nuclear weapons.
Which ME Countries Strive to Possess Nuclear Weapons?
Iran
Iran is the central concern in discussions of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. It officially denies seeking nuclear weapons, stating its program is for civilian purposes. But in reality, Iran has developed advanced uranium enrichment capabilities and reduced cooperation with international inspectors at various points.
At the same time Iran develops a sophisticated long range missile program. These ballistic missiles could be equipped with nuclear warheads.
Many analysts argue Iran is approaching a “nuclear threshold” – the ability to build a weapon relatively quickly if it decides to do so. Iran’s potential nuclearization is widely seen as the most significant trigger for a regional arms race. It has a negative impact on other states.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has increasingly signaled its intention to develop a nuclear program, officially framed around civilian energy needs but closely tied to regional security concerns. The kingdom argues that nuclear power is necessary to diversify its energy mix, reduce reliance on oil, and meet rising domestic electricity demand under Vision 2030.
At the same time, Saudi leaders have repeatedly warned that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Riyadh will seek equivalent capabilities, making the program strategically sensitive.
Saudi Arabia has explored building nuclear reactors, expanding uranium mining and fuel-cycle research on its territory, and negotiating nuclear cooperation agreements with countries such as the United States, China, South Korea, and Russia.
The central point of contention with Washington has been Saudi reluctance to accept strict limits on uranium enrichment and reprocessing, which are seen internationally as pathways to weapons capability.
Turkey
Turkey is a NATO member and hosts US nuclear weapons under NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. Turkish leaders have periodically questioned why some countries can have nuclear weapons while others cannot.
NATO membership and international commitments currently limit Turkey’s options, but its rhetoric raises long-term questions.
Egypt
Egypt pursued nuclear research in the past and has long advocated for a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction. But now the country is officially committed to non-proliferation.
Egypt closely watches Israel’s nuclear capability and Iran’s program, seeing both as strategic imbalances.
Other ME countries with nuclear capacities
Several Middle Eastern countries possess civilian nuclear capabilities without declared ambitions (so far) to develop nuclear weapons, at this stage focusing instead on energy, research, medicine, and industry under international oversight.
The United Arab Emirates is the clearest example, operating the Barakah nuclear power plant under strict nonproliferation commitments and without enrichment or reprocessing.
Jordan runs a small research reactor used for training, medical isotopes, and scientific research.
Egypt is building the El Dabaa nuclear power plant with Russian assistance as part of its long-term energy strategy, remaining within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Turkey is developing nuclear power through the Akkuyu plant to diversify its energy mix, without pursuing sensitive fuel-cycle technologies.
In North Africa, Morocco and Algeria operate research reactors for civilian purposes such as scientific research and medical applications, under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. While these programs provide technological know-how and infrastructure, they are officially framed as peaceful and transparent, with no stated intention to move toward nuclear weapons.
Major Nuclear Risks in the Middle East
1. Regional Arms Race
If Iran were to cross the nuclear threshold, other regional powers – particularly Saudi Arabia – could follow. This would multiply the number of nuclear actors in a region already marked by instability and give incentive to other states in the region to strive for nuclear weapons.
2. Low Trust and Weak Communication
Unlike the Cold War rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union, Middle Eastern rivals lack robust crisis-management mechanisms, hotlines, and arms-control agreements. Miscalculation would be more likely.
3. Preemptive Military Strikes
The fear that a rival is nearing nuclear capability increases incentives for preemptive attacks on nuclear facilities. Such strikes could rapidly escalate into wider wars involving regional and global powers.
4. Non-State Actors
The Middle East is unique in the prominence of powerful non-state armed groups. Even if nuclear weapons remain under state control, the risk of attacks on nuclear facilities or attempts to acquire nuclear materials is higher than in more stable regions.
5. Escalation from Conventional Conflicts
Many Middle Eastern conflicts are fought just below the threshold of full-scale war. In a nuclearized environment, a conventional clash could escalate far more quickly, especially if leaders fear existential defeat.
6. Erosion of the Global Non-Proliferation Regime
Further nuclear proliferation in the Middle East would weaken the global non-proliferation system, encouraging similar behavior in other regions.
This article is brought to you by INPS Japan in collaboration with Soka Gakkai International, in consultative status with the UN’s Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC).
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